DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064842
论文题名: On the lognormality of historical magnetic storm intensity statistics: Implications for extreme-event probabilities
作者: Love J.J. ; Rigler E.J. ; Pulkkinen A. ; Riley P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9586
EISSN: 1944-9317
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 16 起始页码: 6544
结束页码: 6553
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme event
; forecast and prediction
; magnetic storm
; natural hazard
; space weather
; statistical analysis
Scopus关键词: Balloons
; Codes (symbols)
; Financial data processing
; Forecasting
; Geomagnetism
; Least squares approximations
; Magnetism
; Maximum likelihood
; Maximum likelihood estimation
; Random processes
; Statistical methods
; Stochastic systems
; Extreme events
; Forecast and predictions
; Magnetic storms
; Natural hazard
; Space weather
; Weather forecasting
; extreme event
; forecasting method
; geomagnetic storm
; least squares method
; maximum likelihood analysis
; power law
; probability
; spatiotemporal analysis
; Carrington
; North Dakota
; United States
英文摘要: An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic storm maximum intensities are the realization of a lognormal stochastic process. Weighted least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used to fit lognormal functions to -Dst storm time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least squares. From extrapolation of maximum likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst ≥ 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100 year magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst ≥ 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84941738876&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064842&partnerID=40&md5=046eec93c10cd85bd734f6fd2e1456d4
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9201
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: U.S. Geological Survey, Geomagnetism Program, Denver, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Love J.J.,Rigler E.J.,Pulkkinen A.,et al. On the lognormality of historical magnetic storm intensity statistics: Implications for extreme-event probabilities[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(16).