| 项目编号: | 1623505
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| 项目名称: | Drying Versus Wettening of the East African Climate |
| 作者: | Bradfield Lyon
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| 承担单位: | University of Maine
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| 批准年: | 2014
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| 开始日期: | 2015-12-15
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| 结束日期: | 2017-10-31
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| 资助金额: | USD120655
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| 资助来源: | US-NSF
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| 项目类别: | Standard Grant
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| 国家: | US
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Geosciences - Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
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| 英文关键词: | east africa
; long rain
; climate model projection
; climate model simulation
; change
; climate change simulation
; climate process
; anthropogenic climate change
; idealized climate model experiment
|
| 英文摘要: | This project considers changes in East African precipitation during the March to May "long rains" season, which has received less attention in the literature than the October to December "short rains". While the short rains season has stronger interannual variability and stronger links to El Nino, the long rains have experienced a decline between the periods 1999-2009 and 1980-1998. This decadal trend in rainfall has been linked to increasing SST in the Indian Ocean, which in turn has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3 (CMIP3) show a robust projection that East Africa will become wetter over the 21st century. The climate processes which drive the long rains and their interannual variability are not well understood, and a better understanding of these processes could help to determine whether the model projections are credible, and what factors lead to the dichotomy between long-term model projections and the shorter-term observed trend. The research is divided into three tasks: 1) Identifying the key features of the anomalous large- and regional-scale atmospheric and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns that are linked to observed seasonal rainfall variability and its recent decline in East Africa; 2) Employing climate model simulations and idealized climate model experiments to discern the main drivers of the observed features and changes; and 3) Identifying dynamical and thermodynamical processes in climate model projections associated with changes in long rains precipitation in East Africa during the twenty-first century in the CMIP5 experiments, contrasting results with those found in analysis of CMIP3 experiments.
East Africa is one of the most food-insecure regions of the globe, and a better understanding of the causes of drought and the likelihood of future rainfall change could play a critical role for the development of the region. Work under this award will be highly relevant to organizations including the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) and the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC), both of which have close ties to the PIs' home institution. The work thus has important broader impacts in addition to its scientific merit. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/93017
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Bradfield Lyon. Drying Versus Wettening of the East African Climate. 2014-01-01.
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