| DOI: | 10.1002/2016GL070681
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| 论文题名: | Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models |
| 作者: | DeVries P.M.R.; Evans E.L.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8360
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| EISSN: | 1944-8091
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:23 | | 起始页码: | 12036
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| 结束页码: | 12045
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | earthquake cycle
; hypothesis testing
; rheology
; viscoelastic
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| Scopus关键词: | Earthquakes
; Elasticity
; Faulting
; Geodesy
; Geophysics
; Rheology
; Statistical tests
; Strike-slip faults
; Viscoelasticity
; Viscosity
; Earthquake cycles
; Geodetic observation
; Geologic slip rates
; Global distribution
; Hypothesis testing
; Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
; Significance levels
; viscoelastic
; Fault slips
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| 英文摘要: | A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM <~ 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM >~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85007422341&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070681&partnerID=40&md5=97882c6b251c27b5a0bb25d1aa322203
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9323
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
DeVries P.M.R.,Evans E.L.. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(23).
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