| 英文摘要: | Non-technical Summary
The United States is experiencing a major expansion of domestic oil and gas production. These activities involve large amounts of water, both in hydraulic fracturing and in reservoir production, and the energy boom has been accompanied by a major increase in wastewater disposal by injection. There is growing evidence that wastewater injection can generate earthquakes under certain conditions. For example, injection-induced earthquakes are thought to be responsible for the increase of earthquakes in some places, like Oklahoma, which in 2014 experienced a greater number of earthquakes larger than Magnitude 3 than California.
Although there is much ongoing research related to the potential impacts of the increased oil and gas production on water and air quality, little work has been done to understand how injection wells affect seismic risk, creating substantial uncertainty for communities, industry, and regulators. The CU Collaboratory for Induced Seismicity (CCIS) is developing the geoscience, social science, and engineering understanding, models, and methods needed to quantify risks associated with injection-induced earthquakes and to evaluate strategies for sustainably managing and mitigating these risks.
This research is providing vital knowledge to local communities, regulators, and the oil and gas industry, including guidance documents on seismic monitoring; a science-based model regulation that can help guide state and local regulatory decisions; and seismic risk tools for use by industry, insurers, and others. This information may be used to manage risks associated with injection-induced seismicity to foster more sustainable development of energy. The project involves an External Advisory Board, composed of representatives from regulatory agencies, industry, and academia. This group helps the research team develop products and facilitate the transfer of knowledge and products to key decision makers. The project is also providing a cohort of graduate students and postdocs with the skills to bridge across disciplines to create scientific tools to model and evaluate the risks associated with induced earthquakes and to better communicate these risks. The team has a high representation of women in science and engineering, which is being leveraged to recruit and mentor underrepresented students.
Technical Description
CCIS is probing the mechanisms by which injection wells induce earthquakes, the potential for these earthquakes to cause damage to the built environment, and the social and economic impacts of induced earthquakes. This project is expanding our knowledge of the complex interactions of the natural (Theme I), built (Theme II), and human (Theme III) environments in the creation and management of induced seismicity. In Theme I, we are conducting seismic monitoring and analysis of satellite measurements of surface deformations around injection wells and developing hydromechanical models. Our research in Theme II is focusing on new fragility and hazard models to proactively assess the risk of induced ground shaking to structures and infrastructure, and is exploring how monitoring and other regulatory actions impacts risk. In our Theme III, we are examining how induced seismicity is reflected in community risk perceptions, knowledge sharing networks, and stresses; we are also creating a comprehensive catalog of regulatory alternatives pursued by different states. Our research is grounded in four case study communities in Colorado and Texas.
Our research presents a holistic study of earthquakes induced by deep wastewater injection, linking fluid flow, earthquake initiation, and ground shaking characteristics to probabilistic models for damage to infrastructure and connecting all this work with social science research on community impacts with respect to risk perceptions, social cohesion, and knowledge sharing networks. We are investigating current regulations on induced seismicity, and examining how regulations impact and respond to geoscience, engineering, and community processes. We are accomplishing our goals through in situ and participatory empirical research and design, combined with data collection from seismological and satellite instruments and multi-scale models. In doing so, our research is transforming our understanding of the sustainability of the coupled natural-human-physical systems that affect and are affected by earthquakes induced by deep wastewater injection, which in turn enables new approaches for mitigating and managing these risks. |