| 英文摘要: | This award will provide the funds to the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a study of the fundamental research needed to improve understanding of the processes that initiate, sustain, and end volcanic eruptions and the relationships between those processes and observed eruption precursors. Large volcanic eruptions can have disastrous impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, air and water quality, respiratory health, global air travel, and the economy. Successful forecasts, such as the forecast of 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, can save lives and lessen the adverse impacts of such events. Use of the new interdisciplinary research approaches and innovative sensing systems could make it possible to distinguish an impending eruption from mere volcanic unrest, enabling more reliable warnings to affected populations. In addition, this study could foster collaboration among researchers in different disciplines, instrument developers, and government managers responsible for monitoring volcanoes, warning the public, or mitigating volcanic hazards at local, regional, and national levels. Such collaboration could both inform future volcanology research and enhance volcano monitoring and warning efforts.
Because eruptions are commonly preceded by precursors such as volcanic tremor, earthquakes, gas discharges, or surface deformation, eruptions at some well-monitored volcanoes have been forecast successfully. However, although our capability to provide useful warnings of possible eruptions has improved, many aspects of volcanic systems are not fully understood, and volcanic eruptions cannot be reliably predicted. Advancing the field requires contributions from multiple scientific disciplines, including volcanology, geodynamics, geodesy, seismology, meteorology, hydrology, and remote sensing. This study would bring together experts from these disciplines to identify priority research, modeling, and observations needed to better understand the behavior of volcanoes and their future activity. The engagement of these experts and the findings and conclusions from the study could advance understanding of volcanic eruptions and inform the U.S. research agenda. In particular, the NRC will convene a committee of 12 individuals in the field of volcanology to compile information on the current scientific understanding of magma storage, ascent, and eruption; new research on volcanic processes and precursors that could lead to better forecasts; new observations or instrument deployment strategies; and research and observation priorities to improve understanding of eruptions and to inform monitoring and early warning. The committee would hold 3 meetings and a workshop to gather information, deliberate, and prepare a consensus report on the tasks listed above. The published report would be shared freely and disseminated to the research and technical community as well as to interested policy and decision makers at federal, state, and local levels. |