| DOI: | 10.1002/2016GL071238
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| 论文题名: | Urbanization causes nonstationarity in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall extremes |
| 作者: | Singh J.; Vittal H.; Karmakar S.; Ghosh S.; Niyogi D.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8428
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| EISSN: | 1944-8159
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:21 | | 起始页码: | 11269
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| 结束页码: | 11277
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | GAMLSS
; nonstationarity
; rainfall extremes
; urbanization
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Rural areas
; Environmental change
; GAMLSS
; Generalized additive model
; Indian summer monsoon rainfall
; Non-stationarities
; Physics-based modeling
; Rainfall extremes
; urbanization
; Rain
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| 英文摘要: | Global and local environmental changes are likely to introduce nonstationarity in the characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes. Here we perform a nonstationary frequency analysis on ISMR extremes in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape framework with a cluster of 74 models, considering nonstationarity in different possible combinations. Interestingly, we observe significant nonstationarity in ISMR extremes in urbanizing/developing-urban areas (transitioning from rural to urban), compared to completely urbanized or rural areas. This presents a postulation that the extent of urbanization plays a significant role in introducing nonstationarity in ISMR extremes. We emphasize the effect of urbanization in changing the character of ISMR extremes, which further needs a scientific re-evaluation by implementing physics-based modeling. The impact of these observational studies will be critical in correcting the bias of model projections of ISMR. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84998631522&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL071238&partnerID=40&md5=a057d03854e98e63006edd4b0f580c61
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9391
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Singh J.,Vittal H.,Karmakar S.,et al. Urbanization causes nonstationarity in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall extremes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(21).
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