DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070754
论文题名: Quantifying the probability of meteotsunami occurrence from synoptic atmospheric patterns
作者: Šepić J. ; Vilibić I. ; Monserrat S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8519
EISSN: 1944-8250
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 19 起始页码: 10377
结束页码: 10384
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Balearic Islands
; Ciutadella
; meteorological tsunamis
; meteotsunami forecast
; meteotsunami warning
; synoptic patterns
Scopus关键词: Sea level
; Atmospheric conditions
; Atmospheric pattern
; Atmospheric variables
; Balearic Islands
; Ciutadella
; Meteotsunami
; Sea-level oscillations
; Synoptic patterns
; Probability
英文摘要: A synoptic atmospheric index is constructed for the region of the Balearic Islands, Spain. The index links the occurrence of meteotsunamis, i.e., atmospherically induced high-frequency sea level oscillations (2 min < T < 120 min), to contemporaneous meteorological synoptic conditions above the region. The correlation between the synoptic index and wave heights is found to be significant and high (up to 0.75). The vertical wind profile is recognized as the most important variable governing the sea level response to atmospheric conditions. The probability of the occurrence of a meteotsunami can be then evaluated from synoptic atmospheric variables. The results show that there exists an index threshold, below which the probability for an intense meteotsunami occurrence is extremely low. However, meteotsunami-favorable synoptic conditions (the index exceeding the threshold value) are crucial but insufficient; some mesoscale features, not reflected in the synoptic pattern, are found to play an important role in meteotsunami generation. The constructed index is potentially applicable to other world locations where a set of tsunamigenic synoptic conditions may be defined in a similar way as at the Balearic Islands. The index can be used to estimate the rate of meteotsunami occurrence under the conditions of past, present, and future climates. It can also be effectively used in meteotsunami warning systems, especially to switch between a “silent mode” (index below the threshold value) to an “event mode.”. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84990934010&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070754&partnerID=40&md5=b5748fb570b5a0cd35f38912b010a1e6
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9482
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia
Recommended Citation:
Šepić J.,Vilibić I.,Monserrat S.. Quantifying the probability of meteotsunami occurrence from synoptic atmospheric patterns[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(19).