globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
项目编号: 1514704
项目名称:
RAPID: Value of Information and Structured Decision-Making for Management of Ebola
作者: Katriona Shea
承担单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
批准年: 2013
开始日期: 2014-12-15
结束日期: 2017-11-30
资助金额: USD200000
资助来源: US-NSF
项目类别: Standard Grant
国家: US
语种: 英语
特色学科分类: Biological Sciences - Environmental Biology
英文关键词: model ; decision-making ; value ; perfect information analysis ; new ebola model ; management recommendation ; information theory ; uncertainty ; ebola virus ; ebola outbreak ; ebola virus model
英文摘要: During an infectious disease outbreak, such as the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus in West Africa, numerous mathematical models are created to predict the magnitude, breadth, and spatial extent of disease and to inform public health officials on how to best utilize and distribute resources. Depending on the models and the parameters of the data, they can predict vastly different outcomes. This poses a significant challenge for policy-makers to interpret and apply these tools. This research team will utilize the strengths of existing prediction models and will quantify the uncertainty in decision-making for each of the various models. The investigators will simulate alternative public health interventions using current published prediction models for the 2014 Ebola outbreak. This method will not only provide an immediate tool for the current outbreak, but it establishes a formal framework for comparing projections.

This research addresses scientific uncertainty across numerous published Ebola virus models and will evaluate the ability of each model to achieve its stated objective. The researchers will systematically identify the areas of uncertainty in the models to target key sources of disagreement in management recommendations. This will be done using value of information theory and applying value of perfect information analysis. The research team plans to expand the scope of their work to include new Ebola models as they become published. The results will not select or produce a single ?best? model, but will rather articulate and reduce the uncertainty that impedes success in each of the models.
资源类型: 项目
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/95329
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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Recommended Citation:
Katriona Shea. RAPID: Value of Information and Structured Decision-Making for Management of Ebola. 2013-01-01.
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