| 项目编号: | 1439940
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| 项目名称: | South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Origin of Multidecadal Variability/Trends and Investigation of Seasonal Predictability |
| 作者: | Sumant Nigam
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| 承担单位: | University of Maryland College Park
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| 批准年: | 2013
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| 开始日期: | 2014-09-01
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| 结束日期: | 2018-08-31
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| 资助金额: | USD844427
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| 资助来源: | US-NSF
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| 项目类别: | Continuing grant
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| 国家: | US
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Geosciences - Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
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| 英文关键词: | sst-leading rainfall regression
; seasonal rainfall
; summer rainfall
; rainfall reconstruction
; monsoon rainfall
; post-1950s rainfall
; south asia
; potential predictability
; rainfall observation
; monsoon hydroclimate variability
; seasonal summer rainfall
; sst-based predictability
; various seasonal lead
; key sst-monsoon rainfall link
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| 英文摘要: | The Indo-Gangetic Plain is home to a billion people and is the agricultural heartland of South Asia. Rapid population and economic growth have led to significant land-use land-cover change, aerosol loadings, and greenhouse gas emissions. Regional hydroclimate exhibits substantial - at times, precarious - multidecadal trends: For example, summer rainfall over the Gangetic Plain has declined by 10-15% since the 1950s. The seasonal rainfall is moreover seldom predicted accurately; prediction skill has remained modest and stagnant despite advances in the representation of physical processes, numerical model resolution, and data assimilation.
This project has the following goals:(A) To investigate if the steep decline in post-1950s rainfall is from anthropogenic effects, multidecadal natural variability, or both. By revealing the nature of interference between secular change and natural variability, this attribution analysis will help estimate the likelihood of even steeper rainfall decline or some reprieve from drying in future decades. The modeling analysis will uncover the mechanisms through which multidecadal ocean variability influences the South Asian monsoon rainfall. (B) To determine the potential predictability of seasonal summer rainfall over South Asia from a discerning spatiotemporal analysis of 20th-21st century SST and rainfall observations, and rainfall reconstruction from contemporaneous and SST-leading rainfall regressions in an independent period - yielding a quantitative assessment of the SST-based predictability of monsoon rainfall at various seasonal leads. Intercomparison of the key SST-monsoon rainfall links in nature and historical simulations will advance the modeling of monsoon hydroclimate variability in two coupled climate models, viz. the Community Earth System Model(CESM) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (NOAA GFDL) model. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/95897
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Sumant Nigam. South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Origin of Multidecadal Variability/Trends and Investigation of Seasonal Predictability. 2013-01-01.
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