| DOI: | 10.1002/2016GL069315
|
| 论文题名: | Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes |
| 作者: | Melia N.; Haines K.; Hawkins E.
|
| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
|
| ISSN: | 0094-8636
|
| EISSN: | 1944-8367
|
| 出版年: | 2016
|
| 卷: | 43, 期:18 | | 起始页码: | 9720
|
| 结束页码: | 9728
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Arctic shipping
; climate projections
; sea ice
|
| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Sea ice
; Ships
; Arctic shipping
; Climate projection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global climate model simulations
; Global economics
; Ice strengthened vessels
; Interannual variability
; North American
; Ice
|
| 英文摘要: | The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic transit shipping. By midcentury for standard open water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available. A sea ice-ship speed relationship is used to show that European routes to Asia typically become 10 days faster via the Arctic than alternatives by midcentury, and 13 days faster by late century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse gas emissions have a larger impact by late century; the shipping season reaching 4–8 months in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 double that of RCP2.6, both with substantial interannual variability. Moderately, ice-strengthened vessels likely enable Arctic transits for 10–12 months by late century. ©2016. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84988359670&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069315&partnerID=40&md5=60eafaaa3fe355cbf19c0bf32a875f72
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9599
|
| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Melia N.,Haines K.,Hawkins E.. Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(18).
|
|
|