| DOI: | 10.1002/2016GL070067
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| 论文题名: | How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? |
| 作者: | Jahn A.; Kay J.E.; Holland M.M.; Hall D.M.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8671
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| EISSN: | 1944-8402
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:17 | | 起始页码: | 9113
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| 结束页码: | 9120
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic
; predictability
; sea ice
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Forecasting
; Reactor cores
; Sea ice
; Arctic
; Climate model simulations
; Earth system model
; Ensemble simulation
; Global-mean temperature
; Internal variability
; predictability
; Prediction uncertainty
; Ice
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| 英文摘要: | Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84988977924&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070067&partnerID=40&md5=eccf6ce99bd64e3000e15d1b0f21bbae
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9634
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Jahn A.,Kay J.E.,Holland M.M.,et al. How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(17).
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