| 英文摘要: | 1360445 (Vorosmarty). The focus of this research is on the national grand challenge known as the "Energy-Water-Climate Nexus." Specifically, this research is on the reliability of electric power sector infrastructure and operations (electric power grids) and climate change adaptation when viewed from the perspective of strategic water issues. The electric power sector is the nation's leading user of fresh water. It is critically dependent on this resource, particularly to cool its large population of thermoelectric power plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in seasonal disruptions of water supply. Recent energy-water nexus studies by this research team, done at regional-to-national scales, have revealed several findings that can be used to guide the next-stage of study: (i) current electric sector infrastructure is sensitive to climate constraints on water supply, regulatory constraints, and economic competition with other sectors for water; (ii) the frequency and intensity of water-related vulnerabilities in today's power sector is likely to increase with climate-driven changes in the water cycle plus growth in population and electricity demand; (iii) water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies, if not that of the nation as a whole; (iv) system shocks can be attenuated by different technology mixes and deployments of energy infrastructure. This research focuses specifically on electric power infrastructure, meaning the types, spatial distributions, and levels of investment in technologies that deliver or could deliver electricity to the U.S. economy. The central hypothesis is that today's portfolio of electric power sector infrastructure is unsustainable in the context of satisfying its water needs under anticipated climate change and rising electricity demands. Water-mediated feedbacks will reverberate negatively throughout the national economy, affecting the productivity of other sectors, as well as U.S. competitiveness abroad, unless technology alternatives and infrastructure reconfigurations are put in place.
This research unites three ongoing efforts that have been addressing the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: (a) NREL/Sandia national energy-water assessment, (b) NSF EaSM-funded research on integrated assessment/policy engagement work expanded to national scale, and (c ) UCSB strategic energy economic assessment using input-output models. The principal science goal is to create a National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to evaluate, in the context of anticipated climate and economic change: (i) the performance of the nation's electricity sector; (ii) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, (iii) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the productivity of the economy, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. NEWS will be applied in a series of scenario studies to 2050 using AR5 RCP/SSP climate realizations to drive: technology assessment models for renewable and non-renewable power production and their water requirements; hydrology and thermal impact simulations; and input/output economic models at national and sub-national levels. Future climate and changing energy demands will test the limits of current energy infrastructure in the context of environmental regulations and national climate adaptation and mitigation policies. New energy technologies, including renewables, hold the promise of off-loading substantial water limitations in the electricity sector, that is, if sufficient knowledge, economic realities and political will are in hand. This study is organized to address each of these requirements. The focus is on energy-water adaptation, and the research seeks to identify constraints as well as opportunities over a multi-decade timeframe. This research is motivated by recommendations in the National Climate Assessment (NCA), to which the study team has contributed in terms of its overall leadership, chapter authorship and review contributions. A policy charette process, instituted under an NSF EaSM grant, will be expanded to engage state, regional, and national stakeholders. This research represents the first stage in developing a more complete national energy-water sector assessment framework. Also included is an education and workforce-development plan to train next generation water scientists, strategic planners and policymakers, as well as to promote participation of underrepresented groups in designing the nation?s sustainable water future. |