| 项目编号: | 1408897
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| 项目名称: | Decadal Variability of Interacting Climate Subsystems in the Northern Hemisphere |
| 作者: | Sergey Kravtsov
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| 承担单位: | University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
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| 批准年: | 2013
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| 开始日期: | 2014-07-01
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| 结束日期: | 2018-06-30
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| 资助金额: | USD433031
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| 资助来源: | US-NSF
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| 项目类别: | Continuing grant
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| 国家: | US
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Geosciences - Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
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| 英文关键词: | decadal climate shift
; climate system
; climate long-term state
; comprehensive climate model
; climate predictability
; simulated decadal variability
; climate subsystem
; global climate model simulation
; northern hemisphere decadal climate variability
; climate network
; northern hemisphere
; climate process
; unforced climate simulation
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| 英文摘要: | Improved understanding of Northern Hemisphere decadal climate variability is an issue of tremendous societal importance. The goal of this project is to document simulated decadal variability and to analyze the dynamics of decadal climate shifts in global climate model simulations. Using a novel hybrid dynamical/statistical modeling framework to study the dynamics of the decadal climate shifts and relate them to climate processes operating on shorter, intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales, this work will shed insights into how various components of the climate system interact.
The researchers hypothesize that decadal climate shifts - defined as abrupt changes in the climates long-term state and variability that tend to happen with decadal frequency - arise as a result of collective behavior of climate subsystems due to interplay between occurrences of synchronized states and variable coupling strength within the climate network. This mechanism, which is consistent with the theory of synchronized chaos, appears to be a very robust mechanism operating in the climate system. It has been found in instrumental records, in forced and unforced climate simulations, as well as in proxy records spanning several centuries. The tendency for the climate subsystems to synchronize/couple their intra-seasonal 'beats' appears to be enhanced in certain phases of the slowly varying Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic (AMOC), which is dominated by the decadal time scales. This work will thus provide quantitative estimates of climate predictability in the Northern Hemisphere associated with the coupled climate subsystems simulated by comprehensive climate models. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/96476
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Sergey Kravtsov. Decadal Variability of Interacting Climate Subsystems in the Northern Hemisphere. 2013-01-01.
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