DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069700
论文题名: A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels
作者: Södergren A.H. ; Bodeker G.E. ; Kremser S. ; Meinshausen M. ; McDonald A.J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8689
EISSN: 1944-8420
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 17 起始页码: 9289
结束页码: 9297
语种: 英语
英文关键词: MAGICC
; ozone projection uncertainties
; simple climate model
; stratospheric ozone
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate models
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Ozone layer
; Anthropogenic emissions
; High Latitudes
; MAGICC
; Ozone depleting substances
; Ozone radiative forcing
; Polar Regions
; Projection uncertainty
; Stratospheric ozone
; Ozone
英文摘要: Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are expected to continue to affect concentrations of ozone in the stratosphere through the 21st century. While a range of estimates for when stratospheric ozone is expected to return to unperturbed levels is available in the literature, quantification of the spread in results is sparse. Here we present the first probabilistic study of latitudinally resolved years of return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. Results from our 180-member ensemble, simulated with a newly developed simple climate model, suggest that the spread in return years of ozone is largest around 40°N/S and in the southern high latitudes and decreases with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The spread in projections of ozone is larger for higher greenhouse gas scenarios and is larger in the polar regions than in the midlatitudes, while the spread in ozone radiative forcing is smallest in the polar regions. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84988917047&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069700&partnerID=40&md5=9c7c6f318c2e3b41b7eed6ac93714e67
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9652
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Södergren A.H.,Bodeker G.E.,Kremser S.,et al. A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(17).