| DOI: | 10.1002/2016GL070888
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| 论文题名: | Ranking the strongest ENSO events while incorporating SST uncertainty |
| 作者: | Huang B.; L'Heureux M.; Hu Z.-Z.; Zhang H.-M.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8705
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| EISSN: | 1944-8436
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:17 | | 起始页码: | 9165
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| 结束页码: | 9172
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | El Niño
; ENSO
; La Niña
; ranking
; sea surface temperature
; uncertainty
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Data handling
; Nickel
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Confidence levels
; Discrete values
; ENSO
; Ranking
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern oscillation
; SST anomalies
; Uncertainty
; Oceanography
; data processing
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; histogram
; index method
; La Nina
; ranking
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; uncertainty analysis
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| 英文摘要: | The strength of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often measured using a single, discrete value of the Niño index. However, this method does not consider the sea surface temperature (SST) uncertainty associated with the observations and data processing. On the basis of the Niño3.4 index and its uncertainty, we find that the strength of the three strongest ENSO events is not separable at 95% confidence level. The monthly peak SST anomalies in the most recent 2015–2016 El Niño is tied with 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño as the strongest. The three most negative monthly Niño values occur within the 1955–1956, 1973–1974, and 1975–1976 La Niña events, which cannot be discriminated by rank. The histograms of 1000-member ensemble analysis support the conclusion that the strength of the three strongest ENSO events is not separable. These results highlight that the ENSO ranking has to include the SST uncertainty. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84987677288&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070888&partnerID=40&md5=37c8371d1cca55b5d7190482c0520481
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9668
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, Asheville, NC, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Huang B.,L'Heureux M.,Hu Z.-Z.,et al. Ranking the strongest ENSO events while incorporating SST uncertainty[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(17).
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