DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069847
论文题名: Long-term predictability of soil moisture dynamics at the global scale: Persistence versus large-scale drivers
作者: Nicolai-Shaw N. ; Gudmundsson L. ; Hirschi M. ; Seneviratne S.I.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8749
EISSN: 1944-8480
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 16 起始页码: 8554
结束页码: 8562
语种: 英语
英文关键词: remote sensing
; soil moisture dynamics
; soil moisture persistence
; soil moisture predictability
; teleconnection indices
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Moisture
; Remote sensing
; Soils
; Antarctic oscillation
; Early Warning System
; Moisture variability
; Natural hazard
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Soil moisture dynamics
; Southern oscillation index
; Teleconnection indices
; Soil moisture
英文摘要: Here we investigate factors that influence the long lead time predictability of soil moisture variability using standard statistical methods. As predictors we first consider soil moisture persistence only, using two independent global soil moisture data sets. In a second step we include three teleconnection indices indicative of the main northern, tropical, and southern atmospheric modes, i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). For many regions results show significant skill in predicting soil moisture variability with lead times up to 5 months. Soil moisture persistence plays a key role at monthly to subseasonal time scales. With increasing lead times large-scale atmospheric drivers become more important, and areas influenced by teleconnection indices show higher predictability. This long lead time predictability of soil moisture may help to improve early warning systems for important natural hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods. ©2016. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84983786869&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069847&partnerID=40&md5=17eaa62f2713771574c013d3c23e4dc5
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9712
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Nicolai-Shaw N.,Gudmundsson L.,Hirschi M.,et al. Long-term predictability of soil moisture dynamics at the global scale: Persistence versus large-scale drivers[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(16).