globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070270
论文题名:
The unusual 2013–2015 drought in South Korea in the context of a multicentury precipitation record: Inferences from a nonstationary, multivariate, Bayesian copula model
作者: Kwon H.-H.; Lall U.; Kim S.-J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8750
EISSN: 1944-8481
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:16
起始页码: 8534
结束页码: 8544
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian modeling ; drought ; extreme analysis ; frequency analysis ; multicentury precipitation ; nonstationarity
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks ; Bayesian model ; Changing climate ; Drought severity ; Extreme analysis ; Frequency Analysis ; Historical periods ; Multidecadal variability ; Non-stationarities ; Drought
英文摘要: Recently, the Korean peninsula faced severe drought for more than 3 years (2013–2015). Drought in this region is characterized by multidecadal variability, as seen from one of the longest systematic records available in Asia from 1770 to 2015. This paper explores how the return period of the 2013–2015 drought varies over this historical period to provide a context for the changing climate and drought severity in the region. A nonstationary, multivariate, Bayesian copula model for drought severity and duration is developed and applied. Given the wetting trend over the last 50 years, the recent drought appears quite extreme, while such droughts were common in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84983233450&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070270&partnerID=40&md5=e3c94c1fd4403d2551502f389148c4ca
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9713
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Kwon H.-H.,Lall U.,Kim S.-J.. The unusual 2013–2015 drought in South Korea in the context of a multicentury precipitation record: Inferences from a nonstationary, multivariate, Bayesian copula model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(16).
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