globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069568
论文题名:
Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences
作者: Uhe P.; Otto F.E.L.; Haustein K.; van Oldenborgh G.J.; King A.D.; Wallom D.C.H.; Allen M.R.; Cullen H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8765
EISSN: 1944-8496
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:16
起始页码: 8685
结束页码: 8693
语种: 英语
英文关键词: attribution ; climate change ; European temperatures
Scopus关键词: Earth sciences ; Geophysics ; Anthropogenic climate changes ; Anthropogenic influence ; Attribution ; Comparison of methods ; European regions ; Human influences ; Natural variability ; Climate change
英文摘要: The year 2014 broke the record for the warmest yearly average temperature in Europe. Attributing how much this was due to anthropogenic climate change and how much it was due to natural variability is a challenging question but one that is important to address. In this study, we compare four event attribution methods. We look at the risk ratio (RR) associated with anthropogenic climate change for this event, over the whole European region, as well as its spatial distribution. Each method shows a very strong anthropogenic influence on the event over Europe. However, the magnitude of the RR strongly depends on the definition of the event and the method used. Across Europe, attribution over larger regions tended to give greater RR values. This highlights a major source of sensitivity in attribution statements and the need to define the event to analyze on a case-by-case basis. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84982216199&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069568&partnerID=40&md5=d309be4dde851372897080a3ae7a0b11
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9728
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Uhe P.,Otto F.E.L.,Haustein K.,et al. Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(16).
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