DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070428
论文题名: Giant natural fluctuation models and anthropogenic warming
作者: Lovejoy S. ; del Rio Amador L. ; Hébert R. ; de Lima I.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8768
EISSN: 1944-8499
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 16 起始页码: 8670
结束页码: 8676
语种: 英语
英文关键词: anthropogenic warming
; climate
; scaling
; stochastic processes
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Probability distributions
; Random processes
; Stochastic systems
; Time series analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Anthropogenic warming
; Climate
; Global annual temperature
; Ice age
; Low frequency variability
; Natural fluctuations
; Scaling
; Stochastic models
英文摘要: Explanations for the industrial epoch warming are polarized around the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming (AW) and giant natural fluctuations (GNFs). While climate sceptics have systematically attacked AW, up until now they have only invoked GNFs. This has now changed with the publication by D. Keenan of a sample of 1000 series from stochastic processes purporting to emulate the global annual temperature since 1880. While Keenan's objective was to criticize the International Panel on Climate Change's trend uncertainty analysis (their assumption that residuals are only weakly correlated), for the first time it is possible to compare a stochastic GNF model with real data. Using Haar fluctuations, probability distributions, and other techniques of time series analysis, we show that his model has unrealistically strong low-frequency variability so that even mild extrapolations imply ice ages every ≈1000 years. Helped by statistics, the GNF model can easily be scientifically rejected. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84982296255&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070428&partnerID=40&md5=5bc7939101fd1beb64acad4befbfa0dc
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9731
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Physics, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Lovejoy S.,del Rio Amador L.,Hébert R.,et al. Giant natural fluctuation models and anthropogenic warming[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(16).