DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069704
论文题名: A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures
作者: Olson R. ; Fan Y. ; Evans J.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8869
EISSN: 1944-8600
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 14 起始页码: 7661
结束页码: 7669
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian model averaging
; NARCliM
; probabilistic prediction
; regional climate modeling
; southeast Australia
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Climate change
; Electric power system interconnection
; Bayesian model averaging
; NARCliM
; Probabilistic prediction
; Regional climate modeling
; Southeast australia
; Climate models
英文摘要: Recent studies using regional climate models to make probabilistic projections break important new ground. However, they typically lack cross validation, pull the projections toward agreeing models (which can agree due to shared biases), and ignore model skill at reproducing internal variability when weighing the models. Here we conduct the first, to our knowledge, application of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to make probabilistic projections using regional climate models (RCMs). We weigh the RCMs from the NARCliM project based on their skill at representing temperature over 12 southeast Australian regions in terms of trend, bias, and internal variability. The weights do not depend on model agreement with other models. Using the weighted ensemble, we provide probabilistic seasonal temperature projections. We cross validate the method, and demonstrate that weighted projections are well calibrated and more precise than the unweighted ones. We find considerable differences between the weighted and the unweighted projections in some cases. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84978499811&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069704&partnerID=40&md5=1f577f2a5317fa3d984880894efda457
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9832
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Olson R.,Fan Y.,Evans J.P.. A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(14).