DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069792
论文题名: Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa
作者: Karnauskas K.B. ; Li L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8909
EISSN: 1944-8640
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 13 起始页码: 7152
结束页码: 7159
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Africa
; hurricanes
; outgoing longwave radiation
; seasonal predictability
; tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Storms
; Africa
; Background environment
; Hurricane activity
; Outgoing longwave radiation
; Predicted yield
; Seasonal predictability
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical storms
; Hurricanes
; detection method
; hurricane
; longwave radiation
; NOAA satellite
; prediction
; seasonality
; statistical analysis
; storm
; tropical region
; uncertainty analysis
; Africa
; Atlantic Ocean
英文摘要: Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84978289394&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069792&partnerID=40&md5=094f7520ec565b7a63c787646f93d19c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9872
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Karnauskas K.B.,Li L.. Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(13).