DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069763
论文题名: The sensitivity of water availability to changes in the aridity index and other factors—A probabilistic analysis in the Budyko space
作者: Gudmundsson L. ; Greve P. ; Seneviratne S.I.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8926
EISSN: 1944-8657
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 13 起始页码: 6985
结束页码: 6994
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Budyko framework
; climate change
; probability distribution
; sensitivity analysis
; water availability
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Probability distributions
; Sensitivity analysis
; Budyko framework
; Climatic drivers
; Global change
; Humid climates
; Influences on waters
; Probabilistic analysis
; Probabilistic extension
; Water availability
; Factor analysis
英文摘要: One of the pending questions in the context of global change is whether climatic drivers or other factors have stronger influences on water availability. Here we present an approach that allows to estimate the probability that changes in the aridity index have a larger effect on water availability than equal relative changes in other factors. The analysis builds upon a probabilistic extension of the Budyko framework, which is subject to an analytical sensitivity assessment. The results show that changes in water availability are only dominated by changes in the aridity index in very humid climates. This implies that projected intensifications of aridity in drylands may have less influence on water availability than commonly assumed. Instead, other climatic or nonclimatic factors are dominating. The analysis does hence allow to map regions in which water availability is more sensitive to equal relative changes in either the aridity index or all other factors. ©2016. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84978187262&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069763&partnerID=40&md5=d3105cafb3100803a5502c13226523ef
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9889
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Gudmundsson L.,Greve P.,Seneviratne S.I.. The sensitivity of water availability to changes in the aridity index and other factors—A probabilistic analysis in the Budyko space[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(13).