globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069022
论文题名:
Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters
作者: Bernstein D.N.; Neelin J.D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8969
EISSN: 1944-8700
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:11
起始页码: 5841
结束页码: 5850
语种: 英语
英文关键词: deep convection parameterization ; global warming hydrological cycle change ; parameter sensitivity ; perturbed physics ensemble ; regional precipitation change ; uncertainty quantification
Scopus关键词: Natural convection ; Deep convection ; Hydrological cycles ; Parameter sensitivities ; perturbed physics ensemble ; Precipitation change ; Uncertainty quantifications ; Global warming
英文摘要: A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3 mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive “dangerous ranges.” The low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate. ©2016. The Authors.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84977085574&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069022&partnerID=40&md5=3c5ac21c9cd55e73ca6921859990decf
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9932
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Bernstein D.N.,Neelin J.D.. Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(11).
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