DOI: 10.1038/s41561-017-0029-9
论文题名: Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions
作者: Karnauskas K.B. ; Lundquist J.K. ; Zhang L.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2018
卷: 11, 期: 1 起始页码: 38
结束页码: 43
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic source
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate modeling
; energy resource
; ensemble forecasting
; global perspective
; greenhouse gas
; Northern Hemisphere
; resource assessment
; scenario analysis
; Southern Hemisphere
; wind power
; wind turbine
英文摘要: The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations' strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22% per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today's climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbine power curve to simulations of high and low future emissions scenarios in an ensemble of ten fully coupled global climate models to investigate large-scale changes in wind power across the globe. Our calculations reveal decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations. The changes across the northern mid-latitudes are robust responses over time in both emissions scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere changes appear critically sensitive to each individual emissions scenario. In addition, we find that established features of climate change can explain these patterns: polar amplification is implicated in the northern mid-latitude decrease in wind power, and enhanced land-sea thermal gradients account for the tropical and southern subtropical increases. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105633
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Karnauskas K.B.,Lundquist J.K.,Zhang L.. Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions[J]. Nature Geoscience,2018-01-01,11(1)