DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2863
论文题名: Centennial glacier retreat as categorical evidence of regional climate change
作者: Roe G.H. ; Baker M.B. ; Herla F.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2017
卷: 10, 期: 2 起始页码: 95
结束页码: 99
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; glacier
; glacier retreat
; meteorology
; numerical model
; regional climate
; signal-to-noise ratio
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: The near-global retreat of glaciers over the last century provides some of the most iconic imagery for communicating the reality of anthropogenic climate change to the public. Surprisingly, however, there has not been a quantitative foundation for attributing the retreats to climate change, except in the global aggregate. This gap, between public perception and scientific basis, is due to uncertainties in numerical modelling and the short length of glacier mass-balance records. Here we present a method for assessing individual glacier change based on the signal-to-noise ratio, a robust metric that is insensitive to uncertainties in glacier dynamics. Using only meteorological and glacier observations, and the characteristic decadal response time of glaciers, we demonstrate that observed retreats of individual glaciers represent some of the highest signal-to-noise ratios of climate change yet documented. Therefore, in many places, the centennial-scale retreat of the local glaciers does indeed constitute categorical evidence of climate change. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105848
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Institute of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Roe G.H.,Baker M.B.,Herla F.. Centennial glacier retreat as categorical evidence of regional climate change[J]. Nature Geoscience,2017-01-01,10(2)