DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2820
论文题名: Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic sea-ice loss
作者: McCusker K.E. ; Fyfe J.C. ; Sigmond M.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 11 起始页码: 838
结束页码: 842
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; air-sea interaction
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cooling
; high pressure system
; sea ice
; winter
; Arctic Ocean
; Barents Sea
; Eurasia
; Kara Sea
英文摘要: Surface air temperature over central Eurasia decreased over the past twenty-five winters at a time of strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing and Arctic amplification. It has been suggested that this cooling was related to an increase in cold winters due to sea-ice loss in the Barents-Kara Sea. Here we use over 600 years of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations to isolate the effect of Arctic sea-ice loss, complemented with a 50-member ensemble of atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations allowing for external forcing changes (anthropogenic and natural) and internal variability. In our atmosphere-only simulations, we find no evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss having impacted Eurasian surface temperature. In our atmosphere-ocean simulations, we find just one simulation with Eurasian cooling of the observed magnitude but Arctic sea-ice loss was not involved, either directly or indirectly. Rather, in this simulation the cooling is due to a persistent circulation pattern combining high pressure over the Barents-Kara Sea and a downstream trough. We conclude that the observed cooling over central Eurasia was probably due to a sea-ice-independent internally generated circulation pattern ensconced over, and nearby, the Barents-Kara Sea since the 1980s. These results improve our knowledge of high-latitude climate variability and change, with implications for our understanding of impacts in high-northern-latitude systems. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105894
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
McCusker K.E.,Fyfe J.C.,Sigmond M.. Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic sea-ice loss[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(11)