DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2483
论文题名: Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme
作者: Meredith E.P. ; Semenov V.A. ; Maraun D. ; Park W. ; Chernokulsky A.V.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2015
卷: 8, 期: 8 起始页码: 615
结束页码: 619
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric convection
; atmospheric modeling
; global warming
; nonlinearity
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation intensity
; sea surface temperature
; thermodynamics
; threshold
; troposphere
; Black Sea
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: Over the past 60 years, both average daily precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation have increased in many regions. Part of these changes, or even individual events, have been attributed to anthropogenic warming. Over the Black Sea and Mediterranean region, the potential for extreme summertime convective precipitation has grown alongside substantial sea surface temperature increase. A particularly devastating convective event experienced in that region was the July 2012 precipitation extreme near the Black Sea town of Krymsk. Here we study the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) increase on convective extremes within the region, taking the Krymsk event as a showcase example. We carry out ensemble sensitivity simulations with a convection-permitting atmospheric model and show the crucial role of SST increase in the extremeness of the event. The enhancement of lower tropospheric instability due to the current warmer Black Sea allows deep convection to be triggered, increasing simulated precipitation by more than 300% relative to simulations with SSTs characteristic of the early 1980s. A highly nonlinear precipitation response to incremental SST increase suggests that the Black Sea has exceeded a regional threshold for the intensification of convective extremes. The physical mechanism we identify indicates that Black Sea and Mediterranean coastal regions may face abrupt amplifications of convective precipitation under continued SST increase, and illustrates the limitations of thermodynamical bounds for estimating the temperature scaling of convective extremes. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106211
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany; A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation; P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceonology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation; Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
Recommended Citation:
Meredith E.P.,Semenov V.A.,Maraun D.,et al. Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(8)