DOI: 10.1111/ele.12893
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85039171508
论文题名: Making ecological models adequate
作者: Getz W.M. ; Marshall C.R. ; Carlson C.J. ; Giuggioli L. ; Ryan S.J. ; Romañach S.S. ; Boettiger C. ; Chamberlain S.D. ; Larsen L. ; D’Odorico P. ; O’Sullivan D.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2018
卷: 21, 期: 2 起始页码: 153
结束页码: 166
语种: 英语
英文关键词: appropriate complexity modelling
; coarse graining
; disease modelling
; ecosystems restoration models
; environmental management models
; extinction risk assessment
; hierarchical modelling
Scopus关键词: complexity
; decision analysis
; disease
; ecological modeling
; environmental assessment
; environmental impact assessment
; environmental management
; environmental modeling
; extinction risk
; hierarchical system
; policy making
; restoration ecology
英文摘要: Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/107511
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Museum of Paleontology and Department Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Bristol Centre for Complexity Sciences, Department of Engineering Mathematics, School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Lauderdale, FL, United States; Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Schools of Mathematical Sciences and Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu, Natal, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Getz W.M.,Marshall C.R.,Carlson C.J.,et al. Making ecological models adequate[J]. Ecology Letters,2018-01-01,21(2)