DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3952-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85031107130
论文题名: Evaluation of GCMs historical simulations of monthly and seasonal climatology over Bolivia
作者: Abadi A.M. ; Oglesby R. ; Rowe C. ; Mawalagedara R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 733
结束页码: 754
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; atmospheric moisture
; climate change
; computer simulation
; downscaling
; general circulation model
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; seasonality
; wind
; Bolivia
英文摘要: Bolivia is a low-latitude, developing country at grave risk to the deleterious effects of human-induced climate changes. Due to the complexity of the topography in Bolivia, it is difficult to capture future impacts of the climate change on the regional scale with the coarse resolution of current GCMs. A robust strategy has been developed to dynamically downscale the GCM outputs to a more appropriate temporal and spatial resolution for impact studies. Prior to downscaling, however, evaluation of the GCMs used to provide large-scale forcing is a necessary step to ensure physically meaningful results from regional climate models. This study represents the first part of a broader project on evaluating climate change impacts over Bolivia. We examined precipitation, temperature, wind patterns and moisture transport to evaluate the performance of eight CMIP5 GCMs in simulating the continental and regional climate patterns. Phenomena including the seasonal and monthly positions of the intertropical convergence zone, South Atlantic convergence zone, Bolivian high, Chaco low and South American low-level jet, were analyzed. Our results confirm that, in general, all the GCMs do reasonably well in simulating the basic patterns of the variables with some discrepancies in magnitude across models, especially in the regional scale. Some models outperform the others for the variables and the region of our interest. Finally, the results of this research will help improve quantifying the uncertainty range of further regional downscaling outputs. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109239
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States; Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Abadi A.M.,Oglesby R.,Rowe C.,et al. Evaluation of GCMs historical simulations of monthly and seasonal climatology over Bolivia[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-01-02)