DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3914-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85030316303
论文题名: Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles
作者: Kumar D. ; Ganguly A.R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 207
结束页码: 219
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate adaptation
; Climate predictability
; CMIP5
; Multiple initial condition
; Near-term climate change
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; CMIP
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; sensitivity analysis
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0–30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders’ scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109245
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Sustainability and Data Sciences Laboratory (SDS Lab), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kumar D.,Ganguly A.R.. Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-01-02)