DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0178.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054100647
论文题名: Impact of dynamically downscaling two CMIP5 models on the historical and future changes in winter extratropical cyclones along the East Coast of North America
作者: Zhang Z. ; Colle B.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 20 起始页码: 8499
结束页码: 8525
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Climate prediction
; Diabatic heating
; Extratropical cyclones
; Model comparison
; Precipitation
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Storms
; Weather forecasting
; Climate prediction
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Diabatic heating
; Extratropical cyclones
; Global circulation model
; Initial and boundary conditions
; Model comparison
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate models
英文摘要: This study investigates the impact of dynamical downscaling on historical and future projections of winter extratropical cyclones over eastern North America and the western Atlantic Ocean. Six-hourly output from two global circulation models (GCMs), CCSM4 and GFDL-ESM2M, from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to create the initial and boundary conditions for 20 historical (1986-2005) and 20 future (2080-99) winter simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Two sets of WRF grid spacing (1.0° and 0.2°) are examined to determine the impact of model resolution. Although the cyclone frequency in the WRF runs is largely determined by the GCM predictions, the higher-resolution WRF reduces the underprediction in cyclone intensity. There is an increase in late-twenty-first-century cyclone activity over the east coast of North America in CCSM4 and its WRF, whereas there is little change in GFDL-ESM2M and WRF given that there is a larger decrease in the temperature gradient in this region. There is a future increase in relatively deep cyclones over the East Coast in the high-resolution WRF forced by CCSM4. These storms are weaker than the historical cases early in their life cycle, but then because of latent heating they rapidly develop and become stronger than the historical events. This increase does not occur in the low-resolution WRF or the high-resolution WRF forced by GFDL since the latent heat increase is relatively small. This implies that the diabatic processes during cyclogenesis may become more important in a warmer climate, and these processes may be too weak in existing coarse-resolution GCMs. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110662
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhang Z.,Colle B.A.. Impact of dynamically downscaling two CMIP5 models on the historical and future changes in winter extratropical cyclones along the East Coast of North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(20)