DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85053037172
论文题名: Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse gas, and anthropogenic aerosol forcing
作者: Mueller B.L. ; Gillett N.P. ; Monahan A.H. ; Zwiers F.W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 19 起始页码: 7771
结束页码: 7787
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aerosols
; Arctic
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Climate variability
; Sea ice
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Climate change
; Greenhouse effect
; Greenhouse gases
; Palmprint recognition
; Regression analysis
; Sea ice
; Anthropogenic aerosols
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Arctic
; Climate change detection
; Climate variability
; Detection and attributions
; Internal climate variability
; Optimal fingerprinting
; Climate models
英文摘要: The paper presents results from a climate change detection and attribution study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in September for the 1953-2012 period. For this period three independently derived observational datasets and simulations from multiple climate models are available to attribute observed changes in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings. Here we direct our attention to the combined cooling effect from other anthropogenic forcing agents (mainly aerosols), which has potentially masked a fraction of greenhouse gas-induced Arctic sea ice decline. The presented detection and attribution framework consists of a regression model, namely, regularized optimal fingerprinting, where observations are regressed onto model-simulated climate response patterns (i.e., fingerprints). We show that fingerprints from greenhouse gas, natural, and other anthropogenic forcings are detected in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond that, our findings indicate that for the 1953-2012 period roughly 23% of the greenhouse gas-induced negative sea ice trend has been offset by a weak positive sea ice trend attributable to other anthropogenic forcing. We show that our detection and attribution results remain robust in the presence of emerging nonstationary internal climate variability acting upon sea ice using a perfect model experiment and data from two large ensembles of climate simulations. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110668
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Mueller B.L.,Gillett N.P.,Monahan A.H.,et al. Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse gas, and anthropogenic aerosol forcing[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(19)