DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0060.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052730900
论文题名: Regional and seasonal characteristics of the recent expansion of the tropics
作者: Grise K.M. ; Davis S.M. ; Staten P.W. ; Adam O.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 17 起始页码: 6839
结束页码: 6856
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Climate variability
; Hadley circulation
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Trends
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Expansion
; Sea level
; Tropics
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate variability
; Hadley circulation
; Internal variability
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Regional characteristics
; Seasonal characteristics
; Trends
; Climate models
英文摘要: In recent decades, the subtropical edges of Earth's Hadley circulation have shifted poleward. Some studies have concluded that this observed tropical expansion is occurring more rapidly than predicted by global climate models. However, recent modeling studies have shown that internal variability can account for a large fraction of the observed circulation trends, at least in an annual-mean, zonal-mean framework. This study extends these previous results by examining the seasonal and regional characteristics of the recent poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation using seven reanalysis datasets, sea level pressure observations, and surface wind observations. The circulation has expanded the most poleward during summer and fall in both hemispheres, with more zonally asymmetric circulation trends occurring in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The seasonal and regional characteristics of these observed trends generally fall within the range of trends predicted by climate models for the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, and in most cases, the magnitude of the observed trends does not exceed the range of interdecadal trends in the models' control runs, which arise exclusively from internal variability. One exception occurs during NH fall when large observed poleward shifts in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic sector exceed nearly all trends projected by models. While most recent NH circulation trends are consistent with a change in phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the observed circulation trends over the North Atlantic instead reflect 1) large natural variability unrelated to the PDO and/or 2) a climate forcing (or the circulation response to that forcing) that is not properly captured by models. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110710
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States; Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Recommended Citation:
Grise K.M.,Davis S.M.,Staten P.W.,et al. Regional and seasonal characteristics of the recent expansion of the tropics[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(17)