globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0074.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85046376038
论文题名:
Future Caribbean climates in a world of rising temperatures: The 1.5 vs 2.0 Dilemma
作者: Taylor M.A.; Clarke L.A.; Centella A.; Bezanilla A.; Stephenson T.S.; Jones J.J.; Campbell J.D.; Vichot A.; Charlery J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:7
起始页码: 2907
结束页码: 2926
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Global warming ; Rain ; Climate variability ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Global surface air temperature ; Pre-industrial levels ; Rainfall patterns ; Rising temperatures ; Small island developing state ; Surface air temperatures ; Climate models ; air temperature ; climate prediction ; CMIP ; ensemble forecasting ; global warming ; regional climate ; surface temperature ; Caribbean Islands
英文摘要: A 10-member ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used to analyze the Caribbean's future climate when mean global surface air temperatures are 1.5°, 2.0°, and 2.5°C above preindustrial (1861-1900) values. The global warming targets are attained by the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s respectively for RCP4.5. The Caribbean on average exhibits smaller mean surface air temperature increases than the globe, although there are parts of the region that are always warmer than the global warming targets. In comparison to the present (using a 1971-2000 baseline), the Caribbean domain is 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer at the 1.5°C target, 5%-10% wetter except for the northeast and southeast Caribbean, which are drier, and experiences increases in annual warm spells of more than 100 days. At the 2.0°C target, there is additional warming by 0.2°-1.0°C, a further extension of warm spells by up to 70 days, a shift to a predominantly drier region (5%-15% less than present day), and a greater occurrence of droughts. The climate patterns at 2.5°C indicate an intensification of the changes seen at 2.0°C. The shift in the rainfall pattern between 1.5°C (wet) and 2.0°C (dry) for parts of the domain has implications for regional adaptation pursuits. The results provide some justification for the lobby by the Caribbean Community and Small Island Developing States to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, as embodied in the slogan "1.5 to Stay Alive". © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111574
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica; Instituto de Meteorología, Havana, Cuba; Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computing, University of the West Indies, Cave Hill, Barbados

Recommended Citation:
Taylor M.A.,Clarke L.A.,Centella A.,et al. Future Caribbean climates in a world of rising temperatures: The 1.5 vs 2.0 Dilemma[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(7)
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