DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0316.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043690706
论文题名: Multimodel future projections of wintertime North Atlantic and North Pacific tropospheric jets: A Bayesian analysis
作者: Whittleston D. ; McColl K.A. ; Entekhabi D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 6 起始页码: 2533
结束页码: 2545
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic
; Atmospheric circulation
; Bayesian methods
; Jets
; Sea ice
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Climatology
; Greenhouse gases
; Jets
; Sea ice
; Arctic
; Atmospheric circulation
; Bayesian methods
; Bayesian techniques
; Future projections
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; Robust predictions
; Weighted projection
; Troposphere
英文摘要: The impact of future greenhouse gas forcing on the North Atlantic and North Pacific tropospheric jets remains uncertain. Opposing changes in the latitudinal temperature gradient-forced by amplified lower-atmospheric Arctic warming versus upper-atmospheric tropical warming-make robust predictions a challenge. Despite some models simulating more realistic jets than others, it remains the prevailing approach to treat each model as equally probable (i.e., democratic weighting). This study compares democratically weighted projections to an alternative Bayesian-weighting method based on the ability of models to simulate historical wintertime jet climatology. The novel Bayesian technique is developed to be broadly applicable to high-dimensional fields. Results show the Bayesian weighting can reduce systematic bias and suggest the wintertime jet response to greenhouse gas forcing is largely independent of this historical bias (i.e., not state dependent). A future strengthening and narrowing is seen in both winter jets, particularly at the upper levels. The widely reported poleward shift at the level of the eddy-driven jet does not appear statistically robust, particularly over the North Atlantic, indicating sensitivity to current model deficiencies. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111656
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Whittleston D.,McColl K.A.,Entekhabi D.. Multimodel future projections of wintertime North Atlantic and North Pacific tropospheric jets: A Bayesian analysis[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(6)