DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0048.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040951248
论文题名: Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall
作者: Fereday D. ; Chadwick R. ; Knight J. ; Scaife A.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 3 起始页码: 963
结束页码: 977
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Climate change
; Climate classification/regimes
; Europe
; Precipitation
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Cluster analysis
; Digital storage
; Meteorology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Sea level
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate classification/regimes
; Europe
; European precipitations
; Mean sea level pressures
; Precipitation time series
; Precipitation variability
; Regional climate changes
; Climate change
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric dynamics
; climate change
; climate classification
; future prospect
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; regional climate
; trend analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; winter
; Europe
英文摘要: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report highlighted large uncertainty in European precipitation changes in the coming century. This paper investigates the sources of intermodel differences using CMIP5 model European precipitation data. The contribution of atmospheric circulation to differences in precipitation trends is investigated by applying cluster analysis to daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. The resulting classification is used to reconstruct monthly precipitation time series, thereby isolating the component of precipitation variability directly related to atmospheric circulation. Reconstructed observed precipitation and reconstructions of simulated historical and projection data are well correlated with the original precipitation series, showing that circulation variability accounts for a substantial fraction of European precipitation variability. Removing the reconstructed precipitation from the original precipitation leaves a residual component related to noncirculation effects (and any small remaining circulation effects). Intermodel spread in residual future European precipitation trends is substantially reduced compared to the spread of the original precipitation trends. Uncertainty in future atmospheric circulation accounts for more than half of the intermodel variance in twenty-first-century precipitation trends for winter months for both northern and southern Europe. Furthermore, a substantial part of this variance is related to different forced dynamical responses in different models and is therefore potentially reducible. These results highlight the importance of understanding future changes in atmospheric dynamics in achieving more robust projections of regional climate change. Finally, the possible dynamical mechanisms that may drive the future differences in regional circulation and precipitation are illustrated by examining simulated teleconnections with tropical precipitation. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111678
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Fereday D.,Chadwick R.,Knight J.,et al. Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(3)