DOI: 10.1002/2017JD028121
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045197730
论文题名: Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties
作者: Schwartz S.E.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 7 起始页码: 3462
结束页码: 3482
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aerosols
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate sensitivity
; global temperature
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; anthropogenic effect
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate change
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; prediction
; sensitivity analysis
; steady-state equilibrium
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Unrealized increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) may result from the climate system not being in steady state with forcings and/or from cessation of negative aerosol forcing that would result from decreases in emissions. An observation-constrained method is applied to infer the dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity on forcing by anthropogenic aerosols within the uncertainty on that forcing given by the Fifth (2013) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09–0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12–0.26 K over 100 years). However, the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large but is highly uncertain, 0.1–1.3 K over 20 years. Decrease in CO2 abundance and forcing following abrupt cessation of emissions would offset these increases in GMST over 100 years by as little as 0.09 K to as much as 0.8 K. The uncertainties quantified here greatly limit confidence in projections of change in GMST that would result from any strategy for future reduction of emissions. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114085
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Schwartz S.E.. Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(7)