globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6031
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85062373412
论文题名:
Simulated ENSO's impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific in CMIP5 models and its changes under global warming
作者: Tan K.; Huang P.; Liu F.; Murakami H.; Hsu P.-C.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 ; ENSO ; global warming ; WNP TC genesis
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Climate models ; Global warming ; Hurricanes ; Storms ; Tropics ; CMIP5 ; Detection methods ; ENSO ; Multi-model ensemble ; Southern oscillation ; Tropical cyclone ; Western North Pacific ; WNP TC genesis ; Nickel compounds
英文摘要: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in modulating the location of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP). This study evaluated the simulation of the ENSO's impact on WNP TC genesis in 10 CMIP5 models based on a TC detection method, and projected its changes under global warming using the historical and the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations. The observed southeast–northwest shift role of ENSO in the WNP TC genesis location can be well reproduced in most of the models, although the strength of the ENSO's impact is underestimated as the underestimated climatological TC genesis frequency in these models. Moreover, we found the WNP TC during both El Niño and La Niña events shows an apparent eastwards shift under global warming. However, this eastwards shift of WNP TC genesis could be associated with the changes in climatological TC genesis but not the changes in the ENSO's impact. The projected changes in the ENSO's impact on WNP TC genesis is not as certain as we expected based on the previous conclusions of the robust changes in ENSO's impact on large-scale environment. As a result, we suggest that both the TC genesis climatology and ENSO's impact on TC genesis simulated in the models need improvement in future to project the changes in ENSO's impact under global warming, and more models with 6-hourly outputs used to detect TCs are needed to increase the confidence of multi-model ensemble projections. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116607
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: Earth System Modeling Center and Climate Dynamics Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Center for Monsoon System Research and LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing, China; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China

Recommended Citation:
Tan K.,Huang P.,Liu F.,et al. Simulated ENSO's impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific in CMIP5 models and its changes under global warming[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01
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