Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85060461908
论文题名: Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation
作者: Chiodo G. ; Oehrlein J. ; Polvani L.M. ; Fyfe J.C. ; Smith A.K.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期: 2 起始页码: 94
结束页码: 99
语种: 英语
英文摘要: The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim. First, we show the absence of a solar signal in the North Atlantic Oscillation in the instrumental record prior to the mid-1960s, and a marginally significant signal thereafter. Second, from our analysis of a global chemistry–climate model repeatedly forced with the sequence of solar irradiance since the mid-1960s, we suggest that the solar signal over this period might have been a chance occurrence due to internal variability, and hence does not imply enhanced predictability. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122608
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathamatics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chiodo G.,Oehrlein J.,Polvani L.M.,et al. Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Nature Geoscience,2019-01-01,12(2)