globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2734-8
WOS记录号: WOS:000477054700043
论文题名:
Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation variability in Pakistan
作者: Nabeel, A.1; Athar, H.1,2
通讯作者: Athar, H.
刊名: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0177-798X
EISSN: 1434-4483
出版年: 2019
卷: 137, 期:3-4, 页码:2239-2256
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; LARS-WG ; WEATHER GENERATOR ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; FUTURE CHANGES ; RIVER-BASIN ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; DROUGHT ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation at 46 different weather stations across Pakistan is assessed for the 36-year baseline period during 1976-2011 using a stochastic precipitation generator, both on seasonal and annual basis. The precipitation projections of 15 intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4)-based Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are assessed for three 20-year projected time periods centered at 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099, which are embedded in the stochastic precipitation generator. The slope difference method is used to delineate the three precipitation regimes in Pakistan: arid, semi-arid, and humid. The change in (i) amount of precipitation, (ii) number of wet days, (iii) amount of precipitation per wet day, and (iv) area of precipitation regimes are assessed for all three projection time periods relative to the baseline period. Pakistan has received 487.48mm of average annual precipitation, with an average of 43.54wetdaysyear(-1) during 1976-2011, whereas simulated average annual precipitation is 513.70mm with 43.60 wet days in a year. The stochastic precipitation generator has less than 2% error in simulating the mean annual numbers of wet days during the baseline period, whereas simulated mean annual precipitation is 11.78mmwetday(-1) versus the observed 11.70mmwetday(-1). There is an underestimation of similar to 1% in simulated mean wet spell length during the baseline period. The AOGCMs display varying increase (decrease) in humid and semi-arid (arid) areas in Pakistan in all the three projected time periods.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125412
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Dept Meteorol, Pk Rd, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan
2.COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Ctr Climate Change Res & Dev, Islamabad, Pakistan

Recommended Citation:
Nabeel, A.,Athar, H.. Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation variability in Pakistan[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,137(3-4):2239-2256
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