RIO-DE-JANEIRO
; HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER
; AEDES-AEGYPTI
; TEMPERATURE
; TRANSMISSION
; INDICATORS
; RAINFALL
; DYNAMICS
; HEALTH
WOS学科分类:
Parasitology
; Tropical Medicine
WOS研究方向:
Parasitology
; Tropical Medicine
英文摘要:
Introduction: This study aimed to examine the impact of climate variability on the incidence of dengue fever in the city of Rio Branco, Brazil. Methods: The association between the monthly incidence of dengue fever and climate variables such as precipitation. temperature, humidity, and the Acre River level was evaluated, using generalized autoregressive moving average models with negative binomial distribution. Multiple no-lag, 1-month lag, and 2-month lag models were tested. Results: The no-lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was associated with the monthly averages of the Acre River level (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.17), compensated temperature (IRR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.22-1.95), and maximum temperature (IRR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.58-0.81). The 1-month lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was predicted by the monthly averages of total precipitation (IRR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.39), minimum temperature (IRR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.24-1.91), compensated relative humidity (IRR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.99), and maximum temperature (IRR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.59-0.97). The 2-month lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was predicted by the number of days with precipitation (IRR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.06) and maximum temperature (IRR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.05-1.44). Conclusions: Considering the impact of global climate change on the region, these findings can help to predict trends in dengue fever incidence.
1.Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Publ, Progama Posgrad Scrietu Sensu Ciencias, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil 2.Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Publ, Dept Epidemiol, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil 3.Univ Fed Parana, Dept Engn Florestal, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil 4.Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Publ, Dept Saude Ambiemal, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Duarte, Juliana Lucia,Diaz-Quijano, Fredi Alexander,Batista, Antonio Carlos,et al. Climatic variables associated with dengue incidence in a city of the Western Brazilian Amazon region[J]. REVISTA DA SOCIEDADE BRASILEIRA DE MEDICINA TROPICAL,2019-01-01,52