SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
; NORTH-AMERICAN CLIMATE
; SMALLMOUTH BASS
; MICROPTERUS-DOLOMIEU
; STREAM TEMPERATURE
; BIOTIC INTEGRITY
; CHANGE IMPACTS
; BIODIVERSITY
; PATTERNS
; HABITAT
WOS学科分类:
Fisheries
; Marine & Freshwater Biology
WOS研究方向:
Fisheries
; Marine & Freshwater Biology
英文摘要:
Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species' distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.
1.US Geol Survey, Upper Midwest Environm Sci Ctr, 2630 Fanta Reed Rd, La Crosse, WI 54603 USA 2.Southern Illinois Univ, Ctr Fisheries Aquaculture & Aquat Sci, 173B Life Sci 2, Carbondale, IL 62901 USA 3.Dept Zool, 173B Life Sci 2, Carbondale, IL 62901 USA 4.Utah State Univ, Quinney Coll Nat Resources, Dept Environm & Soc, 5215 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84321 USA 5.Southern Illinois Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Resources, 4537 Faner Hall, Carbondale, IL 62901 USA
Recommended Citation:
Bouska, Kristen L.,Whitledge, Gregory W.,Lant, Christopher,et al. Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change[J]. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FISHERIES AND AQUATIC SCIENCES,2019-01-01,76(3):415-425