globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.01.017
WOS记录号: WOS:000458712100005
论文题名:
Adjusting the rate of spread of fire simulations in real-time
作者: Cardil, Adrian1; Monedero, Santiago1; Alberto Silva, Carlos3; Ramirez, Joaquin2
通讯作者: Cardil, Adrian
刊名: ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
ISSN: 0304-3800
EISSN: 1872-7026
出版年: 2019
卷: 395, 页码:39-44
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Fire modelling ; ROS adjustment factors ; Uncertainties ; Fire simulation
WOS关键词: WILDLAND FIRES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNCERTAINTY ; PREDICTION ; MODEL ; PROPAGATION ; MANAGEMENT ; FATALITIES ; BEHAVIOR ; FUELS
WOS学科分类: Ecology
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Fire simulators allow predicting fire spread and behavior and some of which in real-time. Both strategies and tactics to suppress wildland fires depend on fire analysis which is generally based on fire simulations that need to be accurate for a proper decision making. However, limitations and assumptions of the fire models and uncertainties in input data may induce errors in the simulated fire growth and, therefore, fire simulations do not always match actual fire spread. In this paper, we show an innovative method implemented in Wildfire Analyst to adjust fire simulations in real-time. The method determines the adjustment factors needed for the optimal rate of spread by fuel model in order to minimize the arrival time error between the simulated fire and a set of control points where the arrival time of the observed (real) fire is known. Two case studies were used to present the method, showing robust results in reducing the error and fitting the simulated fire growth to the real fire spread, with practical real-time implications. The method presented may be solved in real-time and used with any empirical fire propagation.


Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:11   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131358
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Tecnosylva, Leon 24009, Spain
2.Univ Idaho, Coll Nat Resources, Dept Nat Resources & Soc, Moscow, ID 83843 USA
3.Technosylva, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA

Recommended Citation:
Cardil, Adrian,Monedero, Santiago,Alberto Silva, Carlos,et al. Adjusting the rate of spread of fire simulations in real-time[J]. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,2019-01-01,395:39-44
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