globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5958
WOS记录号: WOS:000465456400038
论文题名:
Global drought trends under 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming
作者: Xu, Lei1; Chen, Nengcheng1,2; Zhang, Xiang1,3
通讯作者: Chen, Nengcheng
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:4, 页码:2375-2385
语种: 英语
英文关键词: drought ; global warming ; CMIP5 ; SMI ; SPEI
WOS关键词: SOIL-MOISTURE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FUTURE FLOODS ; CMIP5 ; LAND ; SIMULATIONS ; PATTERNS ; FEEDBACK
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Global drought extremes are projected to increase under future warming scenarios. However, global drought risk and pattern remain to be revealed below 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming levels. Here we used multi-model simulations to estimate global drought trend based on multiple drought indicators. The frequency and duration of meteorological drought may increase much faster than surface soil moisture drought and root zone soil moisture drought under anthropogenic warming, with a probable similar to 36% (62%) increase in frequency and a similar to 15% (20%) increase in duration at 1.5 degrees C (2 degrees C) level relative to the reference period over the globe. A 5% (14%) increase of drought frequency is expected at 1.5 degrees C (2 degrees C) warming in the surface soil moisture, and a 5% (2%) increase of duration is also likely in the 0-10 cm soil layer. Unprecedented increased drought risk is anticipated at 2 degrees C level, with potential drought hot spots in North America, South America, southern Africa, Australia and Europe. Drought condition under future warming may be much worse in local areas. The drought frequency in the drylands is much less (> 34%) than the humid areas, but the duration is much higher (> 40%). The 2 degrees C relative to 1.5 degrees C warming is expected to bring higher drought risk than the 1.5 degrees C relative to 1 degrees C period with regard to the frequency.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132533
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Informat Engn Surveying Mapping & R, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Collaborat Innovat Ctr Geospatial Technol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
3.CMA, Inst Arid Meteorol, Key Lab Arid Climat Change & Reducing Disaster, Key Lab Arid Climat Change & Reducing Disaster Ga, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Xu, Lei,Chen, Nengcheng,Zhang, Xiang. Global drought trends under 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(4):2375-2385
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