globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab006a
WOS记录号: WOS:000462895800002
论文题名:
Year-ahead predictability of South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation
作者: Krakauer, Nir Y.1,2
通讯作者: Krakauer, Nir Y.
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:4
语种: 英语
英文关键词: seasonal forecasting ; South Asian Summer Monsoon ; sea-surface temperature ; random forest ; lasso
WOS关键词: SNOW DEPTH ; SURFACE TEMPERATURES ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; MODEL SELECTION ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; RANDOM FORESTS ; LINEAR-MODELS ; REGRESSION ; RAINFALL ; FORECASTS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Since the South Asia Summer Monsoon is the main source of water for a densely cultivated and climate-sensitive region, its predictability has long been the target of research. This work estimates the predictability horizon of monsoon precipitation amount by systematically comparing statistical forecasts made using information from different lead times before the monsoon start. Linear and nonlinear prediction methods are considered that use the leading modes of the global sea surface temperature field to forecast monsoon-season (June-September) total precipitation on a 0.5 degrees grid over South Asia, where each method is trained on data from 1901 to 1996 and evaluated on data from 1997 to 2017. Forecasts were found to outperform a climatology baseline up to at least 1 year ahead, with a nonlinear method (random forest) on average outperforming linear regression with group lasso, although with greater variability in skill across locations and years. Forecast performance measures (fractional reduction in root mean square error and information skill score) decreased with increasing lead time following exponential decay timescales of 5-12 months, depending on the performance measure and forecast method. Even at lead times of several years, there was some forecast skill compared to climatology, as a result of the impact of long-term climate change on monsoon precipitation. The results suggest that monsoon prediction is possible with longer lead times than generally attempted now.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132699
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.CUNY City Coll, Dept Civil Engn, New York, NY 10031 USA
2.CUNY City Coll, NOAA CREST, New York, NY 10031 USA

Recommended Citation:
Krakauer, Nir Y.. Year-ahead predictability of South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(4)
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