Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration, and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal, annual adaptation actions for historic buildings across a 30-year planning horizon, (b) quantify trade-offs between different actions and the timing of adaptation actions under constrained budgets, and (c) estimate the effectiveness of budget allocations on the resource value of historic buildings. Our analysis of the model suggests that: (1) funding allocation thresholds may exist for national parks to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historic buildings under climate change, (2) the quantitative assessment of trade-offs among alternative adaptation actions provides generalizable guidance for decision makers about the dynamics of their managed system, and (3) the OptiPres model can identify cost-efficient approaches to allocate funding to maintain the historical value of buildings vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, the OptiPres model, while not designed as a prescriptive decision tool, allows managers to understand the consequences of proposed adaptation actions. The OptiPres model can guide park managers to make cost-effective climate adaptation decisions for historic buildings more transparently and robustly.
1.Arizona State Univ, Sch Community Resources & Dev, 411 N Cent Ave,Suite 550, Phoenix, AZ 85004 USA 2.Hainan Univ, Hainan Univ Arizona State Univ Joint Int Tourism, 58 Renmin Rd, Haikou 570004, Hainan, Peoples R China 3.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Pk Recreat & Tourism Management, Box 8004,Biltmore Hall, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA 4.US Geol Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Res Ctr, 8711 37th St SE, Jamestown, ND 58401 USA 5.US Geol Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, 127H David Clark Labs, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA 6.Delft Univ Technol, Fac Architecture & Built Environm, Julianalaan 134, NL-2628 BL Delft, Netherlands 7.Western Kentucky Univ, Sch Kinesiol Recreat & Sport, 1906 Coll Hts Blvd, Bowling Green, KY 42101 USA
Recommended Citation:
Xiao, Xiao,Seekamp, Erin,v an der Burg, Max Post,et al. Optimizing historic preservation under climate change: Decision support for cultural resource adaptation planning in national parks[J]. LAND USE POLICY,2019-01-01,83:379-389