全球变化知识资源中心

The complex orography of South Asia, including both the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, renders the regional climate complex. How this climate, especially the monsoon circulations, will respond to the global warming process is important given the large population of the region. In a first step toward a contribution to the understanding of the expected impacts, a series of dynamically downscaled instrumental-era climate simulations for the Indian subcontinent are described and will serve as a basis for comparison against global warming simulations. Global simulations based upon the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are employed to drive a dynamical downscaling pipeline in which the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is employed as regional climate model, in a nested configuration with two domains at 30- and 10-km resolution, respectively. The entire ensemble was integrated for 15 years (1980-94), with the global model representing a complete integration from the onset of Northern Hemisphere industrialization. Compared to CESM, WRF significantly improves the representation of orographic precipitation. Precipitation extremes are also characterized using extreme value analysis. To investigate the sensitivity of the South Asian summer monsoon simulation to different parameterization schemes, a small physics ensemble is employed. The Noah multiphysics (Noah-MP) land surface scheme reduces the summer warm bias compared to the Noah land surface scheme. Compared with the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme, the Grell-3 scheme produces an increased moisture bias at the first western rain barrier, whereas the Tiedtke scheme produces less precipitation over the subcontinent than observed. Otherwise the improvement of fit to the observations derived from applying the downscaling methodology is highly significant.