globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044011
论文题名:
Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world's population within 20 years
作者: Brigitte Mueller; Xuebin Zhang; Francis W Zwiers
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-04-07
卷: 11, 期:4
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

We project that within the next two decades, half of the world's population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. These hot summer frequency projections are based on adjusted RCP4.5 and 8.5 temperature projections, where the adjustments are performed with scaling factors determined by regularized optimal fingerprinting analyzes that compare historical model simulations with observations over the period 1950–2012. A temperature reconstruction technique is then used to simulate a multitude of possible past and future temperature evolutions, from which the probability of a hot summer is determined for each region, with a hot summer being defined as the historically warmest summer on record in that region. Probabilities with and without external forcing show that hot summers are now about ten times more likely (fraction of attributable risk 0.9) in many regions of the world than they would have been in the absence of past greenhouse gas increases. The adjusted future projections suggest that the Mediterranean, Sahara, large parts of Asia and the Western US and Canada will be among the first regions for which hot summers will become the norm (i.e. occur on average every other year), and that this will occur within the next 1–2 decades.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044011
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13745
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada;Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada;Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Brigitte Mueller,Xuebin Zhang,Francis W Zwiers. Historically hottest summers projected to be the norm for more than half of the world's population within 20 years[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(4)
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