globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.3390/w11051022
WOS记录号: WOS:000472680400152
论文题名:
Analysis and Projection of Flood Hazards over China
作者: Liang, Yulian1,3; Wang, Yongli2; Zhao, Yinjun1,3; Lu, Yuan3; Liu, Xiaoying3
通讯作者: Wang, Yongli
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文关键词: heavy rainfall process ; flood hazard ; flood projection ; RCPs
WOS关键词: HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; CHANGING CHARACTER ; CMIP5 ; FREQUENCY ; TRENDS ; DISASTERS ; EXTREMES ; TEMPERATURE ; INTENSITY ; EVENTS
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Floods have been experienced with greater frequency and more severity under global climate change. To understand the flood hazard and its variation in the future, the current and future flood hazards in the 21st century in China are discussed. Floods and their trends are assessed using the accumulation precipitation during heavy rainfall process (AP_HRP), which are calculated based on historical meteorological observations and the outputs of a global climate model (GCM) under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The flood-causing HRPs counted by the flood-causing critical precipitation (the 60% fractile of AP_HRP) capture more than 70% of historical flood events. The projection results indicate that the flood hazards could increase under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and increase slightly under RCP2.6 during the 21st century (2011-2099). The spatial characteristics of flood hazards and their increasing trends under the three RCPs are similar in most areas of China. More floods could occur in southern China, including Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi and Fujian provinces, which could become more serious in southeastern China and the northern Yunnan province. Construction of water conservancy projects, reservoir dredging, improvement of drainage and irrigation equipment and enhancement of flood control and storage capacity can mitigate the impacts of floods and waterlogging on agriculture.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/138059
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.Nanning Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Resources Use Beibu Gul, Minist Educ, Nanning 530001, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East Asia, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
3.Nanning Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Nanning 530001, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Liang, Yulian,Wang, Yongli,Zhao, Yinjun,et al. Analysis and Projection of Flood Hazards over China[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(5)
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