globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4519-2
WOS记录号: WOS:000469016700006
论文题名:
A consistent statistical model selection for abrupt glacial climate changes
作者: Lohmann, Johannes; Ditlevsen, Peter D.
通讯作者: Lohmann, Johannes
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:11, 页码:6411-6426
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dansgaard-Oeschger events ; Statistical model comparison ; Approximate Bayesian computation ; Abrupt climate change ; Millennial-scale climate variability
WOS关键词: NOISE ; TRANSITIONS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The most pronounced mode of climate variability during the last glacial period are the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events. There is no consensus of the underlying dynamical mechanism of these abrupt climate changes and they are elusive in most simulations of state-of-the-art coupled climate models. There has been significant debate over whether the climate system is exhibiting self-sustained oscillations with vastly varying periods across these events, or rather noise-induced jumps in between two quasi-stable regimes. In previous studies, statistical model comparison has been employed to the NGRIP ice core record from Greenland in order to compare different classes of stochastic dynamical systems, representing different dynamical paradigms. Such model comparison studies typically rely on accurately reproducing the observed records. We aim to avoid this due to the large amount of stochasticity and uncertainty both on long and short time scales in the record. Instead, we focus on the most important qualitative features of the data, as captured by summary statistics. These are computed from the distributions of waiting times in between events and residence times in warm and cold regimes, as well as the stationary density and the autocorrelation function. We perform Bayesian inference and model comparison experiments based solely on these summary statistics via Approximate Bayesian Computation. This yields an alternative approach to existing studies that helps to reconcile and synthesize insights from Bayesian model comparison and qualitative statistical analysis.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139045
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst, Ctr Ice & Climate, Copenhagen, Denmark

Recommended Citation:
Lohmann, Johannes,Ditlevsen, Peter D.. A consistent statistical model selection for abrupt glacial climate changes[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(11):6411-6426
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Lohmann, Johannes]'s Articles
[Ditlevsen, Peter D.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Lohmann, Johannes]'s Articles
[Ditlevsen, Peter D.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Lohmann, Johannes]‘s Articles
[Ditlevsen, Peter D.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.